Nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction: A probabilistic modeling framework

Authors developed a probabilistic risk analysis framework to measure benefits (in terms of avoided losses) of nature-based solutions to flood risk management. Results for the Chindwin River basin in Myanmar highlight the potential consequences of deforestation on long-term flood risk. Authors found that loss reduction is driven by small but frequent storms, suggesting that current practice relying on large storms may underestimate the benefits of nature-based solutions. By providing average annual losses, the framework helps mainstream nature-based solutions in infrastructure planning or insurance practice.