Scenarios for providing multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity in viticultural landscapes

In agroecosystems, multiple ecosystem services (ES) such as soil fertility, pest regulation, biodiversity conservation, and crop production need to be balanced to achieve sustainable development goals and Aichi biodiversity targets. The main global drivers of biodiversity and ES in viticultural landscapes are climate change, the invasion of alien (pest) species and globalisation. These drivers influence land use and policy decisions at the local, landscape and regional level, affecting multiple dimensions of biodiversity, the delivery of ES and income. We will develop and test model frameworks which integrate different land use and biodiversity scenarios across spatial scales for future management in viticultural regions from Spain, France, Germany, Austria and Romania. We will start with local focus groups to develop stakeholder-driven scenarios which will be used for agent-based models. Second, we will utilize existing information from different European countries to build a model predicting the provision of key ES. Third, the model will be validated using independent field measurements of above- and below-ground biodiversity, economic performance as well as multiple ES along relevant gradients of landscape complexity and management options across five European case-study regions. The outcomes of the project will be (i) a spatially-explicit model integrating winegrowers as agents who influence land use decisions, (ii) a model that quantifies ES provision (with economic, social and ecological indicators) in viticultural landscapes under different biodiversity scenarios to identify optimal land use management strategies in the current socio-economic system, (iii) recommendations for land-use policy and planning based on possible synergistic and conflicting effects of land-use decisions on multiple ES such as pest control, soil fertility, carbon sequestration and nature conservation and (iv) a software decision-support tool for stakeholders in viticulture as a tool to enhance biodiversity, multiple ES and income in a given landscape context.